It's a proof, however, on average AAPL investor's style (including those institutional ones), i.e., more emotional than the general market. I clearly remember the day when AAPL was 117 in 2008. If some VP had not come out to clarify that they still on track for shipping 10 million iPhone, it could go another dive that day (the general market was more than -1%).
Fast forward to today, AAPL has since recovered to 146 (which it reached about 159 before falling down along with GE and the market). If you look at the graph, you would see a potential cup and handle pattern is getting into perfection. I don't believe that shit however. If I'm looking at it, it's because too many investors react to that and have some short-term effect on stock price.
Right now investors' eyes are on the coming 04/23 when the 2Q result will be posted. It's extremely difficult to predict the difference between investor's expectations versus the real result. A general guideline is that some ipod disappointment has been priced in, but people are looking for some meaningful iPhone and Mac growth. (this is another puzzle to me, back in mid-late last year I already said the iPod pure music player market is pretty much saturated in US, yet it seems average investors are assuming it'll still grow like crazy. 1Q disappointment in units shipped is really no surprise to me, but bang, I'm surprised by the market!)
Currently there are two important indicators if you are paying attention to some details. On Apple's US site. It has best selling rating on different product lines (it used to aggregate all together which gave me much clearer idea, but alas, it's now categorized and thus more encrypted). MacBook Air sitting the top place SINCE IT'S INTRODUCED! I clearly remember Apple TV was top of the list for only two weeks after announcement. Now there are two possible explanations: either MacBook Air is doing extremely well; or other Macs are doing extremely poor. I think the former is more realistic. Even if other Macs are not doing well because of the market, given the fact MacBook Air is targeted as a niche product, you can realize how successful it has been. (I have to pointed out, it's NOT the first time that when Apple introduced some product, investors don't like it, but consumers loves it). Also given the higher selling price, MacBook Air should provide meaningful boost to Apple's Mac line in this Quarter.
iPod line's sequence is interesting. It's Nano, Touch, Classic, Shuffle. I can tell you right now is that Shuffle is doing awful, even after the price cuts. It'll impact the units shipped big time. On the other hand, iPod touch is doing great, which should push the average selling price up for iPod line further. Overall though I think investors will still be disappointed by iPod section (yet they shouldn't). Talking about iPod line, I do believe the initiative to transform it to a mobile wifi device presents new opportunities. My boss who's a tech guru and keep shutting out Apple is now considering an iPod touch since it's the only mobile web device that has capable web surfing. And between my wife and I, we use iPod touch much more on web surfing than listening to music.
I have no way to tell about iPhone since there is only one product :-( . But let me put this way, after SDK is announced, I become a firm believer that it'll be a global hit, just matter of time. It take iPod that many years, it shouldn't take that long for iPhone.
The general US market won't be pretty for years to come. Yet AAPL is still a growth story if you believe me. Such belief cannot be deduced from some financial statements. It comes from the deep understanding of what AAPL is capable of and who are doing the hard work in Infinite Loop 1st. When I saw some news about some other wireless carrier tried to push out iPhone competitors and some magazine review puts iPhone 2nd place in terms of the best wireless device, I just shrugged with a "good luck" to them. It's not difficult, it's impossible. Besides, you think AAPL would sit on iPhone without improving it in years to come? When Jobs said iPhone is 4-5 years lead over competitors, he's not joking.
Patient AAPL investors will be rewarded. The case that can be written into Harvard MBA course is not over yet.
